VOLATILITY IS PERFECTLY NORMAL

Updated: May 20

Stay invested for the long run. It’s time for another post in these exciting days where most of our stocks are in red. Our holding $TTD (Trade Desk Inc A) is down 22% after good Q1 earnings. Several other of our stocks, $TDOC (Teladoc Health Inc), $NET (Cloudflare), $FVRR (Fiverr International ), are down more than 7% in the past 5 days as well. The Hartmutson Portfolio was down more than 4% yesterday. Fear inevitably arises during these periods as a pretty normal human reaction, especially if you are quite new to (growth) investing. But this is not the first time this happens and also not the last. Since its IPO in September 2016 $TTD has dropped two times more than 45%, 5 times more than 30% and 5 times more than 15%. In the same period of time it returned a whopping 1,600% in total. This is not unusual if you compare these stats with one of the most powerful stocks on the market: $AMZN. Amazon IPOed in May 1997 and returned 164,000% since then. But what about the volatility during this period? The stock price plunged 94% in 2001, 3 times more than 45% and 7 times more than 25%. I think we all agree that $AMZN (Amazon) has been and is a great long-term investment. So why not $TTD? In periods of high market price swings long-term investors conviction and patience is tested. Where the succesful investors separate themselves from the poor ones. Or, as a friend of mine used to say: "Everyone is a long-term investor until the stock prices fall signifcantly." Great investors are not influced by short-term price actions which in general only reflect the emotions of the market players. They are worried about inflation, interest rates, tax regulations, overvaluations, sector rotation or whatever. But these parameters have no meaningful long-term effect on the development of the underlying business of a great company. Most important for me as an investor is the durable development of my holding's fundamentals within the next 3 years, 5 years and more. Particularly, among other metrics, the above-average sales growth and managements execution skills. (I will dive deeper into this topic in a later post.) Investing in growth stocks generally comes with higher volatility. Market sentiment might have turned against growth stocks for now. Maybe there will be another few red weeks, maybe months, maybe the rest of the year, who knows. But I am pretty confident that most of our businesses will do exceptionally well within the next decade. If you are ready to join our long journey, I am quite optimistic that you'll also do very well, as long as you don't panic. By the way: Q1 earnings results of our businesses that have already reported were pretty good, some even amazing (maybe not $FSLY (Fastly Inc)). More details will follow in my next reports to you.



In the meantime, Keep perspective.

Keep growing your wealth.

Stay confident and strong.


Cheers, Attila



The Hartmutson Portfolio is very long: $SE (Sea Ltd)$FVRR$TDOC$NET$SQ (Square, Inc.)$ROKU (Roku Inc)$SHOP (Shopify Inc.)$DOCU (DocuSign Inc)$TWTR (Twitter)$CRWD (Crowdstrike Holdings)$TTD$MELI (MercadoLibre)$NTNX ( Nutanix Inc A)$OKTA (Okta Inc)$PINS (Pinterest Inc)$FSLY$IAC (IAC/InterActiveCorp)

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